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Markets are at key juncture. There is a feeling out there everything (as prescribed by textbooks) has been tried.
Main highlights last week were around the Jackson Hole summit and the BRICS summit.
The news was dominated by two sides of the world – upward revisions to US growth and worries over China.
It was a full week of economic news flow. We were waiting for two, main announcements which both concerned inflation.
On Tuesday (1st) we saw Fitch downgrade the US from AAA to AA+. The last time this happened was 5th August 2011 when Standard & Poors did the same thing
Economic news was dominated this week by interest rates from three, key nations/regions and it has not been without its surprises
Overall, Q2 and the 1H of 2023 has been rewarding for portfolios
There is a clear change in sentiment around a Hard landing vs a Soft landing. The latter is gaining traction.
This market update centres around inflation, particularly within the US and China. As well as this, wages and energy prices are discussed.
Once again, we have witnessed bond market volatility this week and it began on Thursday with the release of the ADP employment data...
Following last weekend’s events in Russia, nothing has changed – at least on the surface and beyond Russian borders.
Events in Russia over the past 24 hours have been extraordinary, while earlier in the week UK May inflation proved highly stubborn.
Following a two-week absence, it’s interesting to see if anything has materially changed on the big picture front. The short answer is not much.
This weekly is on the early side and I am wary of what Friday brings, especially as the debt ceiling saga gives rise to further bond market volatility.
It had been a risk-on (more of a relief) rally last week driven primarily by one thing: the start of a possible end in sight to the debt ceiling saga.
Central Banks remain divided on future rate action, which alongside the US Debt Ceiling, US SLOOS and Inflation, are this week's drivers of uncertainty.
This week sees further earnings announcements, especially around banks. Analyst calls show large banks have not yet materially tightened lending standards